NCAAF Predictions & Picks
Model predictions for every game • Picks • 2026-27 Season
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> Our college football prediction model outputs moneyline win probability, spread cover lean, and over/under direction for FBS games each week of the season. Three model versions run in parallel -- V1 has produced ML results above 68% in every season since 2019. The model applies the same expected value framework used across all our sports: identify where tonight's implied market probability diverges from what the historical data shows, and quantify the size of that gap. Full records are on the historical records page.
NFL 2025-26 Season Complete
47-38 | +100.5u
vs last season: +55.3u improvement ↑
Season begins October 2026
CFL 2025-26 Season Complete
47-38 | +100.5u
vs last season: +55.3u improvement ↑
Season begins October 2026
Season: 12-8 | +4.50u
Today's Picks • Apr 17
No picks posted yet for today
No results yet
LAST NIGHT: 1-3 • -2.17u
BETTING RECORD
1-3 | -2.17u
TEAM PICKS RECORDS
Today's Picks • Apr 17
No picks posted yet for today
MODEL PERFORMANCE
Today's Picks • Apr 17
No picks posted yet for today
MODEL PERFORMANCE
Seven Season, Consistent ML Results
V1 ML season by season: 74.2% (2019), 70% (2020), 68.8% (2021), 68.7% (2022), 71.1% (2023), 71.5% (2024), 70.4% (2025). That consistency across seven seasons and three model versions reflects how the college football market tends to reprice slowly -- particularly in non-power conference matchups where sharp money is less active. V2 and V3 apply tighter thresholds, running alongside V1 since 2022, with results tracked and published every season.
From Model Output To Pick
The NCAAF picks page shows which games from this table cleared the full research fulter -- model signal plus context (weather, travel, home-field edge, line movement). The model doesn't know a team just fired its offensive coordinator. It doesn't know the starting quarterback is playing through an injury reported Friday. You do. That combination -- model signal plus real-world context -- is the full picture.