NFL Picks -- Weekly Football Betting Picks
Weekly NFL betting picks • 2026-27 Season
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> Weekly NFL picks derived from our prediction model across three confidence tiers, filtered through injury reports, weather, home-field context, and line movement. The 2025 season finished 82-75-2 | -7.6u -- down on units but a meaningful improvement over 2024's -26.45u. The ML record alone was 39-20, which tells the real story: the model finds the right side more often than not ; the units are still getting dialed in. Full season-by-season records are on the historical records page.
NFL 2025-26 Season Complete
47-38 | +100.5u
vs last season: +55.3u improvement ↑
Season begins October 2026
Fave ATS
Fave ATS
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Fave ATS
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Fave ATS
Season: 12-8 | +4.50u
No picks posted yet for today
Today's Picks • Apr 17
Last night: 1-0 | +0.91u
Dog Spread
7:04 PM ET
NYY @ BOS
NYY -1.5
+130
1u
PENDING
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+130
1u
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+130
1u
LAST NIGHT: 1-3 • -2.17u
No results yet
Washington vs Pittsburgh
OVER 8.5
7:04 PM ET
-120
1u risked
+0.83u
WIN
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+130
+0.83u
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+130
+0.83u
BETTING RECORD
1-3 | -2.17u
CATEGORY
RECORD
UNITS
•
Fave Spread
0-2
-120
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The ML Record vs. The Units Record
The 2025 NFL ML went 39-20. That's a strong win rate -- but the spread and totals selections pulled the units total negative for the season. This is honest: not every bet type performs at the same level, and the records show exactly which angles have been most productive. Dog spread has been the most consistent signal across all seasons -- same pattern as MLB and NHL in the full dataset. Two additional beta model tiers are planned for the 2026-27 NFL season, which should sharpen selection further.
Season Structure & Volume
NFL is an 18-week regular season. With one game per team per week, pick volume is inherently lower than MLB, NBA or NHL -- which means any stretch of results carries more individual weight. The records page shows 2023 finished -0.6u on 121-107, essentially even. 2025 improved on 2024 by nearly 19 units. The trend is the story here.